January 2026 sees the release of SMG’s first annual Commerce Media Trends & Predictions Report, covering the rapid pace of change the sector has seen as retail media moves from a media channel to ‘growth system’.
The report identified six, key trends covering everything from the way the sector is structured to the levers that build consumer trust and embrace creativity. Measurement will also come to the fore as the push towards accountability at every point in the ecosystem grows ever stronger.
AI end-to-end
In 2026, artificial intelligence moves from supporting isolated tasks to orchestrating entire retail media campaigns. AI is already active in discrete campaign stages, but 2026 marks the first time these capabilities are fully connected. This transition requires shared standards, governance and transparency so AI-enabled campaigns can scale responsibly. Human expertise now shifts toward higher-value activities such as oversight, insight generation and creative differentiation. Agency pricing models are also expected to evolve, moving away from time-based fees toward value- and outcome-led models.
The science of alliances
The number of Retail and Commerce Media Networks (RMNs) is growing rapidly, meaning greater market fragmentation. Advertisers are responding by seeking fewer, higher-quality partnerships. According to the report, 56% of US advertisers expect to consolidate their retail media spend with a select few RMNs, ideally no more than six. Despite more than 200 RMNs in existence, the top two are forecast to capture approximately 84% of ad spend in 2025, placing intense pressure on the long tail of smaller networks.
As a result, we can expect to see the first significant wave of multi-RMN alliances. Networks that lack sufficient scale or differentiation will collaborate by sharing data, technology and reach.
“Smaller, newer players need to clearly define their unique value and explore collaborations with other RMNs to boost their offerings,” Marta Roballo, Retail Media Director, P&G
Trust is a retail media superpower
Retail media is 56% more effective at building trust than other paid advertising channels, generating the much-needed ‘halo’ effect from brand reputations built up over years, sometimes decades. Trust is the second-largest driver of brand effectiveness, rising from seventh place a decade ago, and 81% of consumers cite trust as the deciding factor when making a purchase. At the same time, RMNs are likely to introduce stricter standards and guardrails to protect their trusted status.
Creative quality is the differentiator
In 2026, creative is repositioned as a core growth lever in retail media rather than a final executional layer. AI-driven optimisation can potentially increase sameness in targeting and delivery so creative quality becomes a key source of differentiation, driving 56% of the impact on purchase intent, compared with 44% attributable to media placement alone.
Tailoring creative assets to specific placements, contexts and shopper mindsets becomes essential, while RMNs invest more heavily in creative testing and benchmarking to meet rising expectations for performance-driven content.
“Creative quality is a powerful yet largely unrealised missing multiplier of Retail Media effectiveness… smart marketers will maximise impact by elevating creative quality, tailoring assets to placement and integrating content within the broader marketing mix, Simon Atherley, Head of Marketing Effectiveness, Kantar.
We’re going back in
Consumers have also developed a renewed appetite for authentic, real-world experiences. Retailers are responding by treating the entire physical store as a media environment, from static formats to immersive and experiential activations. In-store product sampling is identified as the top in-store ad format by sales uplift at 95.2%, with other experiential formats also ranking among the top five.
Additional data shows that 71% of consumers across all age groups say brick-and-mortar retail experiences help them connect more deeply with brands. A 2025 global survey also found that local and live entertainment were among the most-purchased categories, at 48% and 46% respectively, reinforcing the appeal of real-world connection. In response, retailers are expected to invest more in store design, digital infrastructure and measurement frameworks that capture emotional and behavioural impact.
“[Consumers are] starting to question algorithmic recommendations. As e-commerce becomes increasingly transactional and convenience-driven, physical retail can set itself apart by looking beyond speed and efficiency to lean into its experiential and human aspects,” Dan Takacs, Associate Director of Macro Trends, EMEA, Mintel.
Time to live and let live with social commerce
The final trend highlights the growing influence of live social commerce, driven by east-to-west cultural flow inspired by Asia’s live-shopping models. Forecasts position 2026 as a tipping point in the US, with social commerce sales surpassing $100 billion and accounting for 7.2% of total retail ecommerce. By comparison, livestream commerce represented 19.2% of China’s total retail ecommerce in 2023.
Major social platforms are expanding live-commerce capabilities in Europe, integrating creators, real-time interaction and fulfilment. Live social commerce will reshape discovery and purchasing behaviours, pushing brands and retailers toward creator-led, event-driven retail media strategies that convert real-time engagement into immediate sales.
