Will 2026 be a defining year for commerce media?
It increasingly feels that way. Growth remains strong, but the rules of success are changing. As budgets tighten and scrutiny increases, commerce media is shifting from experimentation to maturity. What is emerging is a more connected, collaborative ecosystem, powered by data, creativity and, increasingly, trust.
At SMG, we have had a front row seat to the evolution of retail and commerce media. Not only observing its rapid growth, but actively helping to shape it. As the market matures, the focus is moving towards integrated, scalable solutions that deliver measurable impact for brands and retailers alike.
What follows are the shifts we believe will define commerce media’s next chapter in 2026.
- AI becomes the backbone of every campaign
AI has already transformed individual elements of commerce media, but in 2026 it will underpin the entire campaign lifecycle. From insight and strategy through to creative development, activation, optimisation and measurement, AI will be embedded at every stage.
Human expertise will increasingly move into higher value roles, while automation is used to enhance creativity, improve accuracy and protect brand integrity. The real value of AI will come from removing friction, reducing waste and enabling teams to deliver better outcomes with fewer manual steps.
Agencies will invest more heavily in stronger data foundations, sharper insights and proprietary optimisation models to stand out in an AI enabled landscape. We will see broader adoption of agentic workflows, low code tools that streamline daily operations, and more conversational planning platforms that unlock data through natural language rather than manual processes.
2. Retail media networks scale through collaboration
Retail media networks that cannot demonstrate meaningful differentiation or sufficient scale will increasingly look to collaborate. In 2026, this will trigger the first wave of multi network partnerships, with networks sharing data, technology and reach.
For advertisers, this unlocks the ability to plan, activate and measure campaigns across multiple retailers through unified systems that align with established digital standards. Crucially, this is not about access to more networks, but fewer systems, clearer reporting and faster decision making.
Some networks will succeed through individual strength, others through strategic alliances. The greatest value will come from partnerships that enable genuinely connected shopper experiences, built on shared measurement frameworks, transparent data and true interoperability.
3. Trust becomes a measurable performance driver
In an AI saturated marketplace, trust will become a measurable performance driver. Retailers will increasingly leverage their reputational strength, while retail media networks become more protective of it, introducing clearer standards, stronger guardrails and higher expectations around content quality and campaign integrity.
Research conducted by MESH Experience and SMG in 2024 shows that retail media is significantly more effective at building trust than other forms of paid advertising. This is driven by the fact that retailers are among the most trusted brands globally, providing credibility at the point of decision. Retail media enables brands to strengthen perception and influence behaviour at scale.
4. Creativity takes its place as a core growth lever
As commerce media becomes increasingly omnichannel, creativity will be given equal weight to media planning.
With AI driven optimisation increasing sameness, creative differentiation will matter more than ever. In 2026, creativity will be planned, evaluated and measured with the same rigour as media, becoming a central driver of performance rather than a late-stage executional layer.
Brands will tailor creative to specific contexts, placements and shopper mindsets. Those that stand out will treat creative as a strategic asset, using insight and craft to deliver relevance, distinction and lasting impact.
5. The physical store becomes a full funnel media channel
As lives become increasingly digital, consumers are craving authentic, real-world connection. In response, brands and retailers will treat the physical store as a full funnel media environment, valued for the human connection it creates.
Every touchpoint, from static signage to digital screens and experiential formats, will be activated to create richer, more immersive shopper experiences. Retailers will increase investment in store design, digital infrastructure and experiential moments that blend creativity with commercial outcomes. The most effective activations will transform physical spaces into social, shareable experiences that bridge online inspiration with offline interaction.
6. Live social commerce breaks through at scale
Live social commerce is poised to explode in Western markets. Inspired by Asia’s live shopping success, we expect to see a major social platform and Western retailer collaborate on a large-scale hybrid live commerce event, bringing creators, audiences and physical stores together in real time.
This convergence will open a new frontier for shoppable social: immersive, interactive and capable of reaching audiences at cultural scale. Brands will invest more heavily in creator led, real time content and live shopping activations, while retailers integrate inspiration to fulfilment systems that allow live moments to convert instantly into sales. Retail media will become more events driven, harnessing cultural moments, live drops and creator partnerships to focus attention and drive incremental impact.
7. The year commerce media comes of age
In 2026, commerce media sits at the intersection of trust, creativity, data and human experience. The leaders will be those who drive total business impact, not just ROI. Who build long term, data driven partnerships. Who invest in creativity, AI and integration. And who prioritise consumer trust and experience.
In 2026, ambition will be judged not by vision alone, but by the ability to deliver consistently at scale.
